The Hockey Theatre Score (TScore)
The Hockey Theatre Score (TScore)
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“Fans only get up for a goal or a fight”
“Fans only get up for a goal or a fight”
This was a quote from a friend that struck me. Hockey fans are some of the best sports fans in the world, and to narrow down their appreciation to two main events in a hockey game seemed like a shallow dig at ice hockey for what it provides as entertainment. However, this statement sparked a research project to find out which teams provide the best “entertainment” (goals + fights) in their home games for fans. This turned into the Hockey Theatre Score, which tries to answer the following question:
Can NHL entertainment value be quantified?
Process
Process
I started with the premise that I wanted at least two full seasons of data, but I wanted modern hockey, so that left me with the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 seasons because of COVID interference and executing this project mid-way through the 2023-2024 National Hockey League (NHL) regular season. I began with home game data from NHL.com, which I exported into a spreadsheet and used the following stats:
Home wins
Home regulation losses
Home overtime losses
Home goals
Home goals against
Home shots per game
Home shots against per game
I then went to hockeyfights.com and looked at each team’s fight lists for both the 2022 and 2023 regular seasons, where I counted the times a team was listed second on their season’s fight card because that would signify that they were the home team in that game. It didn’t matter whether they instigated the fight or not because I was simply looking for fights that occurred in that team’s arena as entertainment for that team’s fans.
Following this, I turned each counting stat into rates to compare season-by-season numbers and allow for future research in incomplete seasons like the COVID-shortened NHL seasons.
This turned into the following metrics for the 2022 and 2023 NHL regular seasons:
Wins Per Home Game (W/HGP)
Regular Losses Per Home Game (RL/HGP)
Overtime Losses Per Home Game (OTL/HGP)
Goals For Per Home Game (GF/HGP)
Goals Against Per Home Game (GA/HGP)
Home Shots Per Home Game (HS/HGP)
Home Shots Against Per Home Game (HSA/HGP)
Fights Per Home Game (Fight/HGP)
Using these rates, I assigned the following initial weights to each metric, and added them together:
These weights are subjective and up for debate. I based these on entertainment value, thinking that 10 shots on goal may provide some excitement that could compare to a goal, but this is by no means set in stone. I also considered overtime games to be less of a drag than regulation losses, and a fight to be more “entertaining” than a goal, but less overall than a win.
Initial Result: The Hockey Theatre Score (TScore)
Initial Result: The Hockey Theatre Score (TScore)
After multiplying each weight by their respective metric, I was able to see a 2022, 2023, and overall Hockey Theatre Score for each of the 32 NHL teams. I weighted 2022 TScores at 0.75 and 2023 TScores at 0.25 to get an overall Hockey Theatre Score for each NHL team. Here are the results:
You can sort by each metric and TScore here:
Application: Comparing TScore to NHL Success (Home Points %)
Application: Comparing TScore to NHL Success (Home Points %)
The final step to this project is looking at the differences between Hockey Theatre Score and the NHL Standings. I chose to use only home game stats to match the TScore system that only concerns entertainment in front of the same "home" fans. Using full NHL standings could be an interesting extension to this project. I weighted a team's 2023 Points % Rank at 0.75 and their 2022 P% Rank at 0.25, similar to the TScore yearly weights. This should show us who “entertains” the most compared to their on-ice success at home, and who succeeded on-ice without as much “entertainment” as other teams, with the following formula:
Using the formula above, here are the results:
This means that teams like the Ottawa Senators, New Jersey Devils, and Los Angeles Kings could be considered more “theatrical” and “entertaining” because their TScore Rank exceeds their Home Points % Rank (entertainment > on-ice success at home).
Conversely, teams like the St. Louis Blues, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Dallas Stars could be considered less “theatrical” and “entertaining” because their Home Points % Rank is higher than their TScore rank (on-ice success at home > entertainment).
2022
# of "more theatrical/entertaining" teams: 14/32
# of "less theatrical/entertaining" teams: 18/32
2023
# of "more theatrical/entertaining" teams: 12/32
# of "equally entertaining/successful" teams: 2/32
# of "less theatrical/entertaining" teams: 18/32
Overall
# of "more theatrical/entertaining" teams: 11/32
# of "equally entertaining/successful" teams: 2/32
# of "less theatrical/entertaining" teams: 19/32
Results: Deviations (Home P% Rank - TScore Rank)
Results: Deviations (Home P% Rank - TScore Rank)
2022: Greatest Deviations
Ottawa Senators (12th P% - 28th TScore = -16)
Calgary Flames (19th P% - 4th TScore = 15)
Colorado Avalanche (16th P% - 2nd TScore = 14)
2022: Smallest Deviations
Buffalo Sabres (26th P% - 25th TScore = 1)
Pittsburgh Penguins (13th P% - 14th TScore = -1)
Chicago Blackhawks (29th P% - 30th TScore = -1)
2022 Average Deviation = 7 places
2023: Greatest Deviations
Ottawa Senators (28th P% - 7th TScore = 21)
New Jersey Devils (25th P% - 5th TScore = 20)
St. Louis Blues (8th P% - 26th TScore = 18)
2023: Smallest Deviations
Washington Capitals (20th P% - 20th TScore = 0)
Chicago Blackhawks (29th P% - 29th TScore = 0)
Carolina (1), Toronto (-1), Vegas (-1)
2023 Average Deviation = 7 places
Overall: Greatest Deviations
St. Louis Blues (11th P% - 23th TScore = -12)
Dallas Stars (6th P% - 16th TScore = -10)
Columbus Blue Jackets (19th P% - 29th TScore = -10)
Overall: Smallest Deviations
Carolina Hurricanes (3rd P% - 3rd TScore = 0)
New York Islanders (17th P% - 17th TScore = 0)
Vegas (1), Chicago (-1), Washington (-1)
Overall Average Deviation = 5 places
Main Conclusion and Theory
Main Conclusion and Theory
A team with a large deviation between their Point % Rank and their TScore Rank implies one of the following conclusions:
The team is drastically more entertaining than successful (e.g. 2023 Ottawa +21)
The team is drastically more successful than entertaining (e.g. 2022 Ottawa -16)
A team with a small deviation between their Point % Rank and their TScore Rank suggests similar entertainment value to success AND implies one of the following conclusions:
High level of entertainment and high amount of success (e.g. Carolina Hurricanes)
Low level of entertainment and low amount of success (e.g. Chicago Blackhawks)
Close to league average in both entertainment and success (e.g. New York Islanders)
Final Notes
Final Notes
There are a few limitations to this study. The weights I used for each metric are subjective, and if I changed these numbers (e.g. made fights worth 0.9 instead of 0.75), it could affect the results significantly. Furthermore, I only considered home games when comparing to home-related stats like TScore -- we could compare to full NHL Standings, among other options depending on the reasoning making sense.
For example, one could look at average points % of the teams that were deemed "more entertaining" or "less entertaining" to look for trends. Another idea would be to look into which conference/division has the most entertaining teams, among other ideas.
There are ways to make this project more accurate and plenty of opportunities to expand on this idea. If you have any insights related to this project, send me an email. I’d be excited to learn more about your thinking.
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